Toronto's going to have a tough time aquiring a high-level forward for at least a couple years

First of all let's start by examining what the leafs have to work with draft-wise in the next two entry drafts:

2010 Entry draft picks:

3rd round (Toronto)
4th round (Phoenix)
5th round (New Jersey)
5th round (Toronto)
7th round (Phoenix)
7th round (Toronto)

2011 Picks
2nd round (Toronto)
4th round (Toronto)
5th (Toronto)
6th (Toronto)
7th (Toronto)
7th (Anaheim)

What I see here is a clear lack of quality picks coupled with a relatively low quantity given that we're in a supposed "rebuilding" phase.

Now heres a look at some interesting statistics regarding the ages, draft positions and other methods of acquiring top level NHL players:

Current scoring leaders and draft positions (as of 6pm March 3rd):

Name - Draft round/number (age) d: drafted by current team, t: traded to current team

1. Ovechkin - 1/1 (24) d
2. H. Sedin - 1/3 (29) d
3. Crosby - 1/1 (22) d
4. Thornton - 1/1 (30) t
5. Backstrom - 1/4 (22) d
6. St. Louis - Undrafted (34) t (traded early in career)
7. Stamkos - 1/1 (20) d
8. Kane - 1/1 (21) d
9. Gaborik - 1/3 (28) t
10. B. Richards - 3/64 (29) t
11. Heatley - 1/2 (29) t
12. Malkin - 1/2 (23) d
13. Kopitar - 1/11 (22) d
14. Kovalchuk - 1/1 (26) t
15. Semin - 1/13 (25) d
16. Marleau - 1/2 (30) d
17. Parise - 1/17 (25) d
18. Getzlaf - 1/19 (24) d
19. Plekanec - 3/71 (27) d
20. Green - 1/29 (24) d
21. Perry - 1/28 (24) d
22. Nash - 1/1 (25) d
23. Iginla - 1/11 (32) t (traded in draft year)
24. M. Koivu - 1/6 (26) d
25. Lecavalier - 1/1 (29) d
26. D. Sedin - 1/2 (29) d
27. Connolly - 1/5 (28) t (traded 2 years after draft)
28. Kesler - 1/23 (25) d
29. Statsny - 2/44 (24) d
30. Eriksson - 2/33 (24) d

- Average age: 26
- Average draft position: ~13th overall
- 25/30 drafted in 1st round
- 2/30 2nd round
- 2/30 3rd round
- 1/30 undrafted
- 22/25 drafted in 1st round
- 8 first overall picks
- 5 of top 8 are 1st overall picks
- 10 of top 12 drafted 4th overall or earlier
- 17 of 30 drafted 10th overall or earlier
- 22/30 remain on same team they were drafted by
- 25/30 still on the same team they were farmed with

What this essentially tells us is that top notch NHL scorers are almost unconditionally acquired through the draft and are typically selected in the first round. Toronto will have some serious difficulty getting their hands on a franchise player without a first round pick in the next two drafts. It also shows how much the Kessel deal will impact the future of the team as the lottery pick we would have had for the 2010 draft has huge potential to produce a marquee player. If the leafs continue on their current path, Boston is likely to receive a top 3 selection and acquire the potential franchise forward which Toronto badly needs.

Top Goaltenders by GAA (Min 30 games played):

1. Rask - 1/21 (22) t (traded before any NHL games)
2. Miller - 5/138 (29) d
3. Kiprusoff - 5/116 (33) t
4. Howard - 2/64 (25) d
5. Nabokov - 9/219 (34) d
6. Huet - 7/214 (34) t
7. Brodeur - 1/20 (37) d
8. Luongo - 1/4 (30) t
9. Vokoun - 9/226 (33) t
10. Bryzgalov - 2/44 (29) t
11. Lundqvist - 7/205 (27) d
12. Anderson - 3/73 (28) t
13. Quick - 3/72 (24) d
14. Mason - 5/122 (33) t
15. Thomas - 9/217 (35) t (before any NHL games)

- Average age: 30.2
- Average draft position: ~117th overall
- 3/15 drafted in the 1st round
- 2/15 2nd round
- 5/15 3rd-5th rounds
- 5/15 6th round or later
- Basically goaltenders are very difficult to predict
- 8/15 still on the same team they were farmed with

As the numbers display, drafting a successful goaltender requires a lot of luck (wide spread of draft rounds) . It is much harder for scouts to accurately predict a goalies future at such a young age than it is for that of a scoring forward. Trading for an elite goaltender however is a lot easier than trying to trade for an elite forward as teams often give up on a goalie before he reaches the apex of his career. The average age for a successful NHL goalie is about 30 right now so clearly they take longer to develop. With our abundance of late picks and current uncertainty in the crease, drafting a goalie might be a good idea in the upcoming draft

Top defencemen based on minutes played/game:
(There are several stats I could have used for defencemen but I felt this was the most comprehensive) 

1. Pitkanen - 1/4 (26)
2. Keith - 2/54 (26)
3. Bouwmeester - 1/3 (26)
4. Niedermayer - 1/3 (36)
5. Boyle - Undrafted (33)
6. Pronger - 1/2 (35)
7. Lidstrom - 3/53 (39)
8. Streit - 9/262 (32)
9. Beauchemin - 3/75 (29)
10. Chara - 3/56 (32)
11. Corvo - 4/83 (32)
12. Green - 1/29 (24)
13. Gonchar - 1/14 (35)
14. Doughty - 1/2 (20)
15. Whitney - 1/5 (27)
16. Rafalski - Undrafted (36)
17. Greene - Undrafted (27)
18. Robidas - 7/164 (32)
19. Quincey - 4/132 (24)
20. Markov - 6/162 (31)
21. Wisniewski - 5/156 (26)
22. Suter - 1/7 (25)
23. Seabrook - 1/14 (24)
24. Wideman - 8/241 (26)
25. Stuart - 1/3 (30)
26. Zidlicky - 6/176 (33)
27. Hamrlik - 1/1 (35)
28. Myers - 1/12 (20)
29. Campbell - 6/156 (30)
30. Phaneuf - 1/9 (24)

- Average age: 29.17
- Average draft position: ~70th overall
- Average draft position (top 15): ~46th overall
- 14/30 drafted in 1st round
- 1/30 in 2nd round
- 7/30 3rd-5th rounds
- 6/30 6th or later
- 3/30 undrafted
- 10/30 drafted in the top 10 overall

The leafs are looking fairly secure on defence now so drafting/trading for a top notch defenceman probably won't be a priority. The ability to draft top defenders without a 1st round pick is clearly possible but close to half of the top 30 were indeed selected in that round. Perhaps using some of the later picks to select defencemen and goalies rather than forwards provides the best odds of finding that diamond in the rough and producing elite talent. Even if the type of player selected does not quite meet our current needs, that player might be of high value to other teams and could provide a good return in the future.

The Leaf's 3 most pressing needs at this point are (a) Scoring forwards, (b) a Captain and (c) a Goalie
There are also 3 basic ways of acquiring players:
- Drafting
- Trading
- Free agency
I have already showed that we will not get a high-end forward through the draft anytime too soon with our lack of early picks and trading for such talent is extremely difficult in today's NHL. With all the long-term, big money contracts being handed out to the top players, trading will not address our scoring needs. Then comes the free agency which could potentially include a top notch NHL forward but it is rare and there are few impending options available over the next few years.

Burkie does certainly enjoy signing a lot of college free agents and has had some success with Jonas Hiller in Anaheim and Bozak looking promising for the Leafs. Maybe we'll get lucky and nab late bloomer like Martin St. Louis from the college ranks or some alternate league.

Ultimately, I feel we are kind of in somewhat of a bind when it comes to filling all the forward gaps in the lineup but hopefully Burke can work some magic and somehow get it done..

Some interesting NHL statistics as the olympic break begins..

• Plus/Minus leaders: 

- 6 of the top 10 +/- leaders are from Washington
- the top 4 are all from the Capitals
Top 5 
Alexander Ovechkin: +43
Jeff Shultz: +37
Nicklas Backstrom: +32
Mike Green: +28
Alexandre Burrows: +28

•  Shorthanded goals:

- Marian Hossa leads with 5 despite only having played in 37 games this season

•  Game winning goals:

- Daniel Sedin has won the game for his team with 7 of his 16 goals

• Division Points:

- Despite being in probably the toughest division in the East, Crosby leads the NHL with 15 division goals and 30 points in 18 Atlantic division games.

• Game misconducts:

- Alex Ovechkin is the only player to have had 2 game misconducts this year..

• Hits:

- For the second consecutive year, Minnesota's 22 year old Cal Clutterbuck leads the NHL in hits with 252. Thats an average of 4.66 hits/game, almost a hit-per-game better than the next best hitter, Ryan Callahan.
- Clutterbuck, Callahan, Brooks Orpik and Dustin Brown have been 4 of the top 5 hitters for 2 years running.

• Giveaways:

- 3 of the top 5 leaders in giveaways are Montreal Canadiens defencemen: Jaroslav Spacek (1st), Roman Hamrlik (2nd) and Hal Gill (5th).

• Shots on goal:

- For all 5 years of Ovechkin's NHL career he has led the league in shots on goal, quite a feat..
- Ovie's 5.2 shots per game are down from last years 6.6, however his shooting percentage is up 4% from last season so he's making his shots more worthwhile.
-  Sidney Crosby is firing and average of 3.7 shots/game and has one of the leagues best shooting percentage at 18.6%. Crosby has not only benefited through more goals this season but his shooting success has risen by over 4% from his previous year's average.
- While Ovechkin is typically considered to be the best goal scorer in the league, his shooting numbers look less impressive than Crosby's this year.

•  Time on ice:

- Ovechkin and Crosby have averaged an almost identical time-on-ice/game this season ranking 4th (21:51) and 5th (21:49) respectively in average ice time for forwards.

Phaneuf swagger and some Ovechkin..

The Dion Phaneuf swagger:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W8lTZAslqw

Ovechkin's top 10 goals video I made last April:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrckZNzSCjk

plus one more which would probably take over the number 4 spot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-D4fBkdnoU

Team Canada Men's Olympic schedule

February 16 (Tuesday), 7:30 P.M.: Canada vs. Norway
    18 (Thursday) 7:30 P.M.: Switzerland vs. Canada
    21 (Sunday) 7:40 P.M.: Canada vs. USA
    23 (Tuesday) : Qualification Rounds (Top 4 teams receive a by)
    24 (Wednesday): Quarter-final rounds
    26 (Friday): Semi-final rounds
             
    27 (Saturday), 10 P.M.: Bronze-medal game
    28 (Sunday), 3:15 P.M.: Gold-medal game
-----------------------------------------------------------------------     
Predicted Quarter-final rounds:

Canada vs. Finland
USA vs. Czech Republic
Russia vs. Switzerland
Sweden vs. Slovakia

Predicted Semi-final rounds:

Canada vs. USA
Russia vs. Sweden

Predicted Gold-medal game:

Canada vs. Russia


more to come...

Brendan Burke...

Leafs GM Brian Burke's youngest son, Brendan was killed Friday following a car crash in Indiana.

I didn't even really know about the guy until his recent "coming out" as being gay. From what I heard from him in interviews at the time though, he seemed like a pretty legit guy who, like his dad,  had the hockey smarts to make a name for him self sometime in the National hockey league.

Tough loss for Brian..

Hopefully he can push through this and it may, in fact, motivate him more so to be the best GM he can be as I am sure it's what his son would have wanted..

Phaneuf's going a bit too far saying the Leafs could still make the playoffs

"It's not over yet" says Phaneuf in regards to the leafs' playoff hopes. In an article from the Toronto Star, Phaneuf declared that the team can and should still make a push for the post-season and while I am a fan of the enthusiasm, it's much to late for a late-season surge.

According to sportsclubstats.com, a reliable playoff forecasting site which uses complex formulas to determine a team's chances of making it to the post-season, the Leafs' odds are at  0.06631%.... thats roughly 1 in 1500. To make it past the season's 82 games, the Leafs will need to play at a minimum of .800 for the remainder of the season to even have a shot. With 25 games left, the buds will have to put up W's in about 20 of those not to mention the 6 teams between them and 8th place will have to avoid any late surges as well.

I truly believe we are a much better team after the recent trades but winning 20/25 games?? Come on, thats not even plausible.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

J.S. Giguere and why he is a major key to the Leaf's future

While every Leaf fan has been going off about how great the Phaneuf deal was and how key the 24 year old defenceman will be to the future of this team, Burke's brilliant trade for all-star goaltender J.S. Giguere is equally monumental if not more..

Anaheim parted ways with Giguere for 3 simple reasons:
- Jonas Hiller has been absolutely stellar in his first 3 years of NHL service and put on a spectacular display last spring helping the Ducks upset San Jose in the first round of the playoffs before almost eliminating the reigning Cup champion Detroit Red Wings.
- Giguere hasn't quite been on the ball for the past couple seasons and let his starting goalie role slip away
- With Hiller having recently resigned with the Ducks, there was no room for 2 high paid goaltenders so Giggy had to go

The Leafs have not had much success with goaltenders since the lockout as both Andrew Raycroft and Vesa Toskala failed to meet expectations and pretty well bombed in Toronto. So why should we expect Giguere to be any different?

Raycroft and Toskala were both relatively unproven goalies who appeared to have the potential for #1 netminder duties but when put to the test, proved otherwise. Giguere on the other hand is a proven number one goalie in the NHL, evidence by his solid and relatively consistent career numbers both regular and post-season. He is a Stanley Cup Champion (2006-07) as well as a Conn-Smythe trophy winner for MVP of the playoffs (2002-03). It should also be noted that these prestigious awards were gathered in 2 separate post-seasons which shows that Giguere is obviously a determined playoff performer who has the ability to go all the way. Such a resume is pretty hard to come by for a goalie who, at 32, is still in his prime and should have a lot more to offer.

As for the concern with his declining play over the past couple seasons, there shouldn't be much to worry about there. NHL players will have their up and down seasons.. look at other star goalies like Mikka Kiprusoff, Evgeni Nabokov or Backstrom. All are star level puck stoppers but hit a slump at some point or another in their careers. Giguere's career numbers have simply been to good to ignore and if you saw Tuesday's game vs. the Devils you'll have a pretty good idea how great the change of scenery has been for him.

Let's take a look at some of Giggy's career stats:
Regular Season
Career Save % - .913 (5th place all time!)
Career GAA - 2.51 (Top 25 all time)
Playoffs
Save % - .925
GAA - 2.08

- 2nd place among active goaltenders in career OT wins
-  4th most playoff wins among active goaltenders

If his season-by-season numbers are of any indication, Giguere should easily be capable of good enough play to earn his 6 million dollar paycheque and potentially take this team on a long playoff run in the next few years. He will be an excellent role model for young Jonas Gustavsson who should learn a lot from the veteran as well as taking a burden off his shoulders and providing some legitimate competition for playing time.

Giguere has many more productive years left in the tank and for the Leafs to have obtained an All-Star quality goaltender for almost nothing but a weak predecessor in Toskala and an aging, unproductive leukemia patient (Jason Blake) is a huge streak of luck for a Toronto squad dying for some better fortune.

Mark my words, Giguere is for real and his trade was probably the best one the Leaf's have made post-lockout.

- Scott Urquhart